Josh Barker Real Estate Podcast #10

Joey: Okay, Josh? Well, it's been, correct me if I'm wrong, but it's been a month.

Josh: It has been a month.

Joey: When I kind of I looked, there's nothing there. Okay. Still nothing there. Excellent.

Josh: He's checking us again.

Joey: Yeah. So, it's August.

Josh: It is.

Joey: We were talking before the camera started rolling. There were several topics because the landscape was moving. Things are shifting a lot, and there's a lot of concern. Some of the things that you were talking about, we were talking about interest rates and the current inventory, but a big topic that you talked about, you talked about insurance, especially for people that are outside of the area, insurance has gone up a lot.

Josh: Yeah. It has. Yeah.

Joey: For example, Shingletown.

Josh: Well, I mean... Yeah. Shingletown. Yeah. It's an effect of what the state's doing too. So the state is putting a lot of pressure on the wildland, wildland-fire interface and trying to push a lot of people back into the cities. They're probably not really putting a lot of pressure on insurance companies because the insurance companies are, for the most part, they're getting very aggressive on how much they're charging in these forested areas. So Shingletown right now is probably a prime example of that. So for our listeners, Shingletown is a community that's to the east of Redding. It's up a hill. It's about 25 minutes away. So for listeners that might be in Sacramento, just think of it like Auburn, going up the hill into Auburn kind of a thing.

Joey: Yeah, totally.

Josh: But, and so Auburn might be even dealing with this too, I'm not sure. But a few years ago, before all the fires that we really started to see at a higher volume, you had... Insurance was probably, let's say, 12, 1500 bucks a year, for those places up there in Shingletown, for just the average type of home. And today, that same property is probably somewhere between $4,000 and $5,000 per year. So it's pretty...

Joey: Now, that's huge. That's a huge impact on your monthly payment.

Josh: It's huge. Yeah.

Joey: You just went from $100 to potentially $400 a month.

Josh: Yeah, exactly. And it has an impact obviously on what you can afford to buy.

Joey: Yeah.

Josh: And we've had numbers that are even higher than that too, much higher than that in terms of the insurance. I've gotten some scary quotes that are much higher than that. So I think it's a challenge. I think it's a challenge for property owners that are up there on the mountain right now because they recognize that they might be grandfathered in with a lower insurance premium, but as soon as the property changes title, the new buyer has to be subject to new rates, and they're not grandfathered in. So that's playing into value in Shingletown right now. So everybody's dealing with interest rate increases, but Shingletown's dealing with interest rate increases and the increase in the fire insurance premiums themselves. And that's...

Joey: It's probably not just Shingletown. It's all the areas that have heavy trees, right? That's...

Josh: Oh, yeah. No, I know. Yeah. Insurance companies right now have these maps that they're doing massive overlays on and their proximity to water access for fire hydrants, full-time fire stations, ingress, and egress. So there are a whole lot of considerations that go into their fire mapping, but Shingletown, unfortunately, is rated essentially as being a pretty high risk for insurance carriers. And so the rate's higher. And if you go all the way down the foothills of the Sierra Nevadas, and also true for the west side of town too, if you get up into Weaverville and places between here and French Gulch and all that, it's kind of the same thing where these higher risk fire areas, they're suffering some much higher fire insurance premiums now.

Joey: To me, that's a perfect example of when we talk about the market, and it's not just when you and I talk about it, but when people talk about the market and I've always tried to say, okay, well, that's a very general term within the market, you have the state market, you have the Redding market.

Josh: Yeah.

Joey: This is, even within this area, suddenly that's pressure. You go 25 miles east, and that's going to be pressure on a home's listing price.

Josh: Oh, yeah.

Joey: Because they're like, well, they're going to have to pay $300, $400 more per month for insurance that they didn't have to pay, just like interest rates. That's just another thing of just a... Even within this market, you now have the segments outside the city limits that they're going to. So it's going to be that headwind pressure that brings down the listing price.

Josh: It is. And it's happening up and down the state of California. It's not just localized to our region only. It's really up and down the state. The state is continuing to focus on infill. They want to see more and more development inside of the cities. They want to see less population in the wildland-fire interface. They're coming out, speaking about it all the time. If you guys were to go on YouTube right now and watch the Governor speaking at the last State of California meeting that he did. That's how it... He spent probably 25 minutes talking about that. They're 100% on it.

Josh: So for me, I'm looking at it going, well, I don't think they're going to put a ton of pressure then on insurance carriers to lower premiums in the wildland-fire interface because I think ultimately, they're trying to push populations into cities. And so, it will be challenging for those already out there. I don't know if this increase in insurance is going to remain or if it's going to change, but right now, it's hard. It's hard on a lot of them.

Joey: Yeah. And it makes sense. I'm not going to be somebody that aligns themself with politicians or anything, but I get it. It's infrastructure.

Josh: Yeah.

Joey: Because of the fires that we have seen and the destruction we've seen, nobody wants to see that.

Josh: No.

Joey: And so everyone wants to see that go away. But it's like, how do you get rid of it then? It's tough. Unless somebody can figure out how to make it rain all the time, we're at the mercy of and when... We've been driving around. My wife just went down to Piedmont, and we just went over to the coast, and we were talking about the water shortage is an issue everywhere. Just driving to the coast normally, the trees looked a lot better than they do this time of year. It looks dry, real dry. It's kind of scary. In fact, when we came back, there were those lightning strike fires that started outside of Willow Creek and Sawyer.

Josh: Yeah. In Six Rivers or something like that.

Joey: Yeah. Something like it was... When we were headed over, it had just happened the night before. So you could see smoke. We're like, what's going on? Found out when we came back two days later. We drove through. It was kinda eerie. It was... I was like, Ugh, should we be on this highway?

Josh: Well, before we segue onto another topic, let's... I just want to tie a loop around this real quick. A lot of the clients that we have that have had a hard time with insurance in those wildland interfaces, they have some options at the state level, they have what's called, I think it's a California FAIR Plan, where they'll actually work with you to insure your property. It doesn't insure your personal contents, and so well, they'll often get a second policy, almost like a renters policy for the personal contents.

Josh: But they can get their fire insurance through this California FAIR Plan, and then they get their own extra insurance rider for their personal property through a normal... Normal insurance carrier. So there are workarounds, but it's challenging. So, I just wanted to share that with our listeners, in case you're saying, "Hey, I'm stuck. Who do I talk to if I can't find insurance?" I'd consider starting there. And I can imagine all of the buyer's agents at Josh Barker know that when they're dealing with a buyer, they let them know about that.

Joey: Oh, yeah, yeah.

Josh: Like our agents are educated on it, they can share it with the clients and walk them through that.

Joey: Absolutely.

Josh: I mean, we have clients we're selling homes for in Shingletown right now. And so, us resourcing some of those insurance options for buyers is a big part of what we have to do. Yeah.

Joey: Awesome. There you go. So some of the other things you and I were talking about... We were talking about headwinds and tailwinds. We always talk about that because those are the big things that kind of are dictating the market. Right?

Josh: Yup.

Joey: And we were talking about... I've been very bullish on one of the tailwinds. To me, the two biggest tailwinds... Well, I guess there are three really big tailwinds, and one of them is interest rates. When interest rates are high, people are dumping out their 401k to buy real estate. It's just like... It makes sense, right? But they're not there anymore.

Josh: No.

Joey: So that huge tailwind is now arguably a headwind. Another big tailwind is obviously inventory. If there's no inventory, people start to get a little bit... It's the classic supply and demand. No supply, demand doesn't have to be... All it has to do is be a little bit higher than supply, and things can get a little squirrely. The last one, though, is... We had a lot of people moving in the area. There was a lot of telework. There was a lot... Covid really amplified that. And that's... What you're seeing is, that's not that way anymore.

Josh: No, it's starting to change, obviously, so there's a lot of stuff in what you just said. If you talk about people coming in from out of the area, if you want to go over that for a minute, we have seen that slow down recently over the last six months. Part of it's because a lot of those markets they were coming from are subject to the same issues we're having right now, which is buyer demand is going down, so it's taking them longer to get their property sold. Maybe the price at which they're selling is having an impact on some of their decision-making, things like that.

Josh: But we're really starting to see this transition from a pandemic-related work practice to more normal work practice. So a lot of these companies, during Covid, we're letting them work from home, which gave them total flexibility in where they might have wanted to live. So a lot of folks were looking at Redding as a great place to go, which we totally agree. But now that these companies are saying, "Hey, it's time to come back to work." So they're starting to bring people back into these companies, physically into these workspaces, and that's reducing some of the options that buyers used to have, so that's why I think we're seeing some of that decline in buyers coming in from outside of the area, some of it's because of that.

Josh: An unrelated issue, but kind of along what we're going to see going forward is that we're starting to see some layoffs in some of these larger, bigger companies. You guys have probably... Our listeners here have probably heard about some of the bigger tech companies doing some layoffs, and a big part of that was that, when Covid hit, they had to send a lot of people home. That caused the productivity to drop a little bit, so they needed more people to do the same work they were doing before Covid. Right?

Joey: Yeah.

Josh: And now that people are coming back into the office again, the productivity is beginning to go up again, and so what that's causing is the employers to say, "Well, now we can start to reduce our number of employees because we're getting more productive now." My phones are ringing... Sorry.

Joey: You're a wanted man.

Josh: I'm a wanted man. So we're getting more productive, or these companies are getting more productive as people come back in the office, and so they're able to lay off... They're not able to, but as a result, they're laying off people they don't feel as necessary. So, that's changing it as well.

Joey: So, we had several big tailwinds that are either arguably neutral or are now headwinds.

Josh: Yeah, that one's probably more of a neu... Just a softening of a tailwind. The biggest headwind of all right now is interest rates, you know, and for people...

Joey: Yeah. And where are they?

Josh: Well, right now, they're at about 5.5% today.

Joey: Which historically is still so low...

Josh: It is.

Joey: You know what I mean? Historically speaking, that's...

Josh: It is. But you know what, Joey? The challenge people don't necessarily think about in that same thought is the pricing of homes pushed up so high as a result of lower interest rates...

Joey: 2.875 and stuff.

Josh: Yeah. So the history of it, if you look at rates six, seven months ago, they were as low as 3.75%, which you would agree is a low rate, right?

Joey: Oh, it's... Yeah. It's almost free money.

Josh: Yup, that's right. Then it pushed up about a month-and-a-half ago, to a height of about 6.5%, and so what happened was that you had median sales prices that were pretty high, and you had the median buyer that was now qualified at 30% less once the rates went up. And so that delta, if you will, the difference between those two was 30%, and it's like, well, volume is going to slow down because the average buyer now is qualified at 30% less than they were six months ago. And home prices are still too high to adjust for that.

Josh: And so, what we've seen in the market is we've seen the volume start to drop off as a result. But there's been some things on the ground that have changed. One is that pricing has come down. Everybody has their own opinion on this overall, but I would say that most people agree pricing has already softened between 8% and 10%.

Joey: Well, you said last time that D. R. Horton had reduced their prices by 10%.

Josh: They did.

Joey: This is a brand new construction.

Josh: Yeah. And now they're selling a little bit. I was just out there this last week, walking those properties out there. They had a little over 50 homes total that they're building. They already had 12 in escrow when we were out there. So, there were 12 of them already under contract, and a lot of that was after they went in there and made some adjustments on their pricing. So, they found the market. But they found the market. Instead of being at 490, they found the market at 430. You know, 430,000 instead of 490,000. So, that's just an example. And of course, a builder's a lot different than a homeowner because the builder is going to just... Like that one anyway, because of them being a national home builder, they work in reality, they're not going to fall in love with their product, they're going to sell it.

Josh: And so they're going to, they're going to face reality and do what they have to do to sell a product. A homeowner may not do that. A homeowner may not, might say, Hey, if I can't get the number I need, well, then I'm not going to do anything. And that's a totally fine answer, of course.

Joey: Or my neighbor got this six months ago. It's like, yeah. When interest rates were 3%, you're right. But at interest rates, the same buying power is now 10% less. That's a whole point you're trying to make of the person that purchased that house, let's say $600,000 at 3.75%, now they're looking at 5.5% to get the same monthly payment. That has to come down. It's a lot. It's almost 2%. That's over a 2% increase in interest rates. I think you. You had a rule you used for every percent, it goes, what, it goes down 10%?

Josh: Yeah. For every 1%, the interest rate increases, which takes away the buyer's purchasing power by up to 10%. And so when rates jumped 3%, 4%, that was a 30% impact on purchasing power. That's where you had that disparity between the median home and then the median buyer and what they qualify for. But prices of, like I said, they've softened a little bit, 8% to 10%, but rates have come down a little bit too. They were at a high of 6.5%. Today they're at 5.5%, which means that a buyer's purchasing power has increased on average by a full 10%, right? So now the delta, if you will, between the median home price and what a median buyer qualifies for, it's sitting right around 10, 12% is what the difference is.

Josh: And does that mean the market's going to go down that far? Well, no, I don't know. I mean, it depends on a whole lot of things, like, you know, what will wages be? What interest rates will be in the future, and how many homes are on the market? You know, right now, home inventory is holding very, very strong. It's not going up really drastically at all at this point, which is actually very surprising. I mean, if there's anything in this story that is really helpful is the fact that the inventory is not exploding right now.

Joey: So last time, I think we were at 2 points. The replenishment rate was like 2.1. Was that right?

Josh: Yeah.

Joey: It was in the 2s. Yeah. And 3 and under is considered a seller's market.

Josh: Yes.

Joey: 4, 5's neutral.

Josh: Yep.

Joey: Anything 6 and above is a buyer's market.

Josh: Exactly.

Joey: So are we still in the, you're saying we're still in the 2s?

Josh: Yeah. We're on the tail end of a seller's market. We're, you know, in the mid-2s regarding an absorption rate and how many homes, how many months of supply we have, and how long it would take to sell off the supply if nothing else came up for sale. So that's where we're sitting right now. And I think what's happening is that a lot of these homeowners are sitting on interest rates at 3.75, and they're going. You know what, if I were to sell my home right now and downsize or sell my home and buy a similar newer home or sell my home and upgrade, they're going to have to give up that 3.75 interest rate. And by going in now, they will buy a home at a 5.5% interest rate.

Josh: And the payment is just such a shocker, I think, in a lot of cases that I think a lot of sellers are saying, you know what? I think our best option is to stay. At least that's what they're saying right now at a larger number. And I think that's contributing to an overall lower home inventory, which is great. I mean, right now, having home inventories in the mid-7s for single-family homes is helpful, you know? Because when inventory starts climbing when that absorption rate climbs, you know, and it goes from a mid-2s to a 4 or a 5-month supply, that's when you start to see days on the market extending, you know, it takes longer to get a home sold.

Josh: You start to see prices soften even more aggressively, a lot of significant price reductions. That's when you start seeing many major changes if that happens.

Joey: Are you guys, so is there a timeframe when you have a listing that you say, Hey, we've been listed this long, that tells us maybe we're overpriced for the market because this is fluctuating so fast. I mean, these numbers are all over the place. Somebody's going to... That traditional comparable market analysis includes previous sales. So like we said in normal times, you would pull a home sale in your neighborhood from six months ago, you know? Pull a few, but you're like, well, it's hard to use that one because those buyers got 3.75%. And these buyers are going to get 5.5%.

Joey: So I can imagine if I'm going to sell my home and I come to you, and I'm like, well, my neighbor got this, and my other neighbor got that. And you're trying to explain to me, I get it, but the market has shifted pretty quickly. And there, it's because this, you know, you're trying to help them sell their home. They're trying to get the absolute most they can. Yeah. And we're past that kind of the peak of that. So is there a timeframe on the market where you go? Hey, look, we should look at changing the price. Is there a standard or a rule or anything like that?

Josh: Well, its price range depends on the type of property you're selling. So, you know, we have a few properties we're selling right now in a retirement community. Well, just the fact that it's a 55 and over, right? That's going to limit the market a little bit. And so our market times are how long we sit before we make recommendations is going to be a little bit longer than just a normal, you know, home in a subdivision somewhere. If you have a two-story home versus a one-story home, two-story home is going to limit your market a little bit because there are more people that want a one-story than a two-story, right? And so, because of that, it might take a little bit longer to find the ideal buyer. So that would be a reason to, you know, make a recommendation that's a little bit different.

Josh: Another one would be maybe the price point itself. You know, if it's a higher price property where the buyer demand is lower, then often it takes a little bit longer before you find the ideal buyer. And so it really comes down to an individual product. I think the best thing that you can really do is that when you do your comparables, when you look at all the homes that are similar to yours that you're selling, right? So if I'm in a retirement community, I'm only going to use retirement community homes as my examples. What I would want to do is to make sure that I look at what the average is for those comparables.

Josh: So if I'm going to use a two-story home, use a lot of two-story homes, what's the average market time for two-story homes? And so that way, when you sit there and determine like when would be a good time for us to make an adjustment on price, if we're not, you know, hitting the target, you and the owner, you know, the agent and the owner should have already identified what period of time that you're going to go before you're going to really make a decision on what to do next. And a lot of it's in the data. Our agents are trained to follow the data.

Joey: I think this would be the hardest market to do that in because you're coming out of such a hot market driven by such low-interest rates. And it's still so fresh, meaning like another year from now, you'll have a year of 5% and 6% or whatever interest rates. And so things will level out, but you still are. So you're coming out of that white hot. So these are the hardest conversations. Because there's this, I remember there was this... There was a meme, but there were a couple of points on it, and it showed these three kids, and one had first place, second place, and third place. So maybe you saw it, and the first place was happy. And the second place was like mad and kind of looking at the first place, and the third place kid was really happy.

Joey: And they were talking about, they even did a survey of Olympians and the happiness of bronze medal winners versus silver medal winners were much higher because of the silver... Because of the silver, all they could think about was how close they were to gold, and the bronze was like, oh, my goodness, I'm on the podium.

Josh: Yeah. I'm on the podium.

Joey: And so you get that when a seller comes to you, and you're like, Hey, they're like, oh, look, you know, all my neighbors got this last December. So...

Josh: Well, you can shift it.

Joey: They're not thinking like, yeah. But look at how much more you got than if you would've sold two years ago. Look at how much equity you create, the mind.

Josh: Yeah. Well, you go through a grieving process, right? I don't remember all the stages to that. I mean, the people here have degrees in psychology, I'm sure, and all that stuff. But yeah, if you thought that your home was worth X and it turns out it's only worth Y, and that's a surprise to you, then you have to go through a grieving process to accept the new reality. And depending on what kind of pressure you're under or your reasons for wanting to sell in the first place, it's going to, and you'll find a way to justify it.

Josh: One thing that many people do, though, is that I hear all the time from sellers basically exchanging a position in the market. So they're selling their home here. That's great. And then they're going to buy another home here. That's great. If the market's down, fine, you're selling for a little less. You're buying for a little less, right? If the market's up, you're selling for a little bit more and buying for a little bit more.

Josh: And so if you, if you look at it from that perspective, most people, they're not moving strictly based on investment, they're moving for their life. They're moving toward a life decision. There, I need more room for the kids, or I'm moving to follow my grandkids or whatever it might be, so they'll make decisions for different reasons. But the other thing that we look at too, when you're talking to sellers on the pricing piece, is when the market's going up, we almost always price based on actives. So you look at active inventory, which is currently for sale, because of that help... That's how you target the highest price for the home.

Josh: When the market's flat, sold data tends to be good data because the market's not changing that much. Sold data kind of gives you the storyline, and then you know where... What you could expect. When the market's going down, pending data...

Joey: Got it.

Josh: This is really what you're looking for. You're looking at homes currently under contract because the pending data is the market's pulse at that moment. We train our agents based on market conditions when you make different types of recommendations because the strategy changes when the market changes. But as long as you spend the time with a homeowner and just walk through here, nationally, what's going on, countywide, this is what's going on. Here's what the comps are doing that is similar to your home. And then, based on that, walk them into it. I think most people get a pretty good understanding of what the options are.

Joey: So I'm going to ask you to pull out your crystal ball.

Josh: Oh, boy.

Joey: And magic eight ball, answer this. So...

Josh: Eightball.

Joey: We've got, what have we got, about five months left in 2022.

Josh: Yep.

Joey: What are the... Do they still have projections of interest rate increases? What are the, at least, that's the, if somebody did research, they could say, well, at least this is what they say is going to happen. What do you see over the next five months?

Josh: Most of the experts right now, I think, are pretty satisfied with, or a lot of the companies are pretty satisfied with a coupon of 4.5 to 5. So I think interest rates being in the mid-5s is probably what most consumers will see on the main street for a while. So I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that. I think it will probably be a real number, and, remember, interest rates aren't necessarily set by the Fed. They're more set by how many people are purchasing those mortgage-backed securities.

Josh: And right now, it seems like there's a pretty healthy appetite for buying mortgage-backed securities in that mid-5 range for the consumer on the street. And so that's one piece, but we're all going to have to look at the delta I was talking about earlier. The median home right now is selling for 10-12% higher than what the median buyer could have afforded, can afford. And so, a few things have to be figured out in that situation.

Josh: I mean, is, rate, if rates soften by half a percent, that increases purchasing power by 5%. So right now, rates will play a very large role in what values do going forward. So watch the rate. If the rate goes down, you know the market will probably not have to adjust much more in terms of pricing. If rates go up for some reason, that's not good news. So that's going to have an immediate impact on value likely.

Joey: And so, out of all the tailwinds we were talking about, we don't see much of a change in inventory. You said that's steady.

Josh: Yep.

Joey: We do see a decline in people moving into the area from out of the area.

Josh: Yep.

Joey: And so the interest rate seems to be, as the interest rate goes, so goes to market for now?

Josh: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the interest rate will probably be the one for the, for most people on the main street are like, well, what do I watch for? Just watch rates. Right now, if rates stay at the rates that they are right now at 5.5%, you know, the pricing might soften a little bit more, but we're certainly not in a position where it's going to be a terrible thing. If rates spike, you know some bad things are coming. And if rates go down, expect that the homes' pricing will probably flatten out or start to tick up again if rates were to drop. So rates would be what I would be staring down and keeping a really close tab on.

Josh: But keep in mind, too, though, that big picture, there's a lot of good things out there. First of all, our home inventories nationally are still low, 4.5 million to 5 million units short. And I think a lot of what's going to... What's going to be done to contribute to improving that is not going to be single-family homes. It's going to be multi-family, okay? But, you know, multi-family is going to be what's probably going to be to see the greatest growth in the future, at least in the near term. It is because they will solve the problem much faster than single-family can.

Joey: Makes sense.

Josh: Yeah, but volumes... Don't be confused by us as real estate agents out there in the market today complaining, okay? Because you're going to hear a lot of complaints about sales being down. Sales being down does not mean prices necessarily have to be down. The volume of home selling is going down right now. That impacts agents only, right? And the people affiliated with when a house sells are all the people that get to be a part of that, but it doesn't necessarily have an impact on what a buyer is doing, and it doesn't necessarily have an impact on what a seller is doing, it just means volumes are down. Does that make sense?

Joey: Oh, absolutely, and I was thinking it's the people that use real estate as like a trading vessel, the home flippers, the... They're the most affected ones. People that are like, Hey, look, we're moving. Well, then you're probably selling your house and buying a house like, Hey, we're moving to Redding, or we're leaving Redding, it's like it doesn't matter what interest rates are, you have to do... The market is what the market is. So the people are like, Hey, I'm buying... I'm flipping homes. We're an investment, or investors and realtors. Those are the ones. Oh, and lenders. Yeah, those are the ones that are like, you know. They're feeling it. Well, it's just like when the stock market goes up and down.

Joey: The stock market went down big time, and my financial advisor called me. Hey, how are you doing? He's being proactive, right? I was like, fine. He's like, Oh, well, you know...

Josh: It's a good time to buy. Rates are...

Joey: The market's done this, the market's done that. I'm like, That's cool, and he's like, he tells me it's nice because you're relaxed, he's like... He's like, when the market goes down, I'm getting punished with phone calls, and I'm like, Wow, that's... It sounds like day traders that have a broker, like why, if you're a day trader, just do it yourself, but people that are watching the market that closes, that's different than people are like, Hey, look, I'm going to retire in 16 years. I just want more money in there than I put in, and some kind of tax, a little bit of a tax write-off at the end of the year, they're like, at least I put that money away.

Joey: And so when I talk to people in the market, not like I talk a lot, but people are just, they're just not talking about real estate the way they were. No one's upset. But there was a time there last year when everybody was watching all the home flipping shows, and so they were all like, Oh, I'm thinking about just flipping some houses. I'm like, Okay, good luck with that. But that's a TV show. You know what I mean? They've got a million dollar per episode budget, so when they tell you they made that on the house... Because you watch them, and there's no way they made that. There's no way like, Oh, yeah. We completely redid this kitchen for $32,000. No, wrong. No way, $32,000 in tile alone. So that's just... People have just calmed down a little bit.

Josh: I think so too, and I think that's the... The story really is that things are just getting... Things are just getting a bit more normal. It's not as exciting as it was before when you're seeing prices growing by 20% in a year. So obviously, we're seeing the markets flatten out. So, yeah, a lot of that excitement is going away, a lot of agents that came into the business are having a hard time just as a result of the inventory or the demand going down, and so you're going to see that. I mean, I've seen that a few times in my career, been doing this for like 23 years, and I've seen this a few times now, where just, you get a lot of people to come in, and things get disrupted, and a lot of people go back out, and so.

Joey: I've got suggestions for those who need that fix, those people, you know what I mean, those people, like hey, with the market. If you want volatile, you want to get involved. You want to put your money at play, go down to your local farmers' market, because food is escalating quickly, so you could buy some tomatoes and then go down at 6:00 and sell the tomatoes and cantaloupe, you know what I mean? So if you're not getting that fix with real estate or the stock market, just remember the farmers' market Saturdays and Thursdays.

Josh: Alright, with that, I guess we'll end on that note, then, so... Yeah, if it's not working, consider farming.

Joey: Yeah, thank you, Josh. I appreciate it.